Returns Modeling Unlocked: Scalable Forecasting for Direct Lenders

The only predictable feature about private credit is that deals will undoubtedly evolve. Multiple amendments, term extensions, and PIK toggles can all affect cash flows and returns. Yet, most fund managers are stuck modeling future events in Excel on a deal-by-deal basis, disconnected from the rest of the portfolio, and subject to inefficient, error-prone manual intervention.

Sirvatus is changing that with our latest feature.

Introducing Returns Modeling, a powerful new tool designed to help direct lenders model cash flows and evaluate multiple deal-level outcomes before they happen, providing enhanced precision and scalability to returns and cash flow modeling. It's a forward-looking lens into performance at a deal and fund level, built natively inside the Sirvatus platform.

A Smarter Way to Model Outcomes

Returns Modeling allows fund managers to evaluate potential outcomes across various assumptions—turning reactive work into proactive insight.

With it, you can:

• Simulate future events such as prepayments, principal extensions, follow-ons, interest rate changes, and new fees.
• Understand the downstream effects of amendments before closing.
• Forecast loan-level returns and cash flows using flexible assumptions.
• Compare multiple modeled scenarios against base case terms for better decision-making.
• Group modeled deals to enable portfolio-level modeling.
• Reduce reliance on spreadsheets and close the loop between realized history and projected cashflows.

“When I was on the GP side, I spent countless hours in Excel just trying to figure out how one deal term change would affect returns across several funds. It was disconnected, manual, and easy to get wrong. That's why we built Returns Modeling—to give deal and ops teams the power to see the ripple effects of deal changes before they happen, inside the same system they already trust.”

— Trevor Cook, Cofounder & CEO, Sirvatus

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Purpose-Built for Direct Lenders

Legacy tools weren't designed to provide a forward-looking perspective on deal and portfolio cashflows. They cater to point-in-time position tracking and often fall short regarding the bespoke deal terms, cash flow waterfalls, and return mechanics that define direct lending.

Answer questions like:

• What happens if we PIK 50% of interest for the next 12 months?
• How much can we improve IRR by layering a minimum interest fee?
• What is the impact of a 50 basis point decrease or increase in reference rates?
• What is the implication of assigning a first-out position at S+275 bps for cash interest while we skim the global PIK interest?
• How does a partial prepayment at 102% impact the return metrics and capital available for recycling?
• What is the trade-off between IRR and MOIC if we extend maturity but add a cash exit fee?

Shaping What's Next

We're setting a new foundation for returns modeling for fund managers. As the year progresses, we'll continue to release more advanced capabilities like portfolio-wide stress testing, capital deployment modeling, leverage facility management, deeper integrations with portfolio monitoring and fund accounting tools, and using natural language to describe and implement a model scenario.